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Cannes; London

Positive Residential Rental Growth Expected Across EMEA, Says JLL

​For the first time in over 12 months rents are expected to grow in all 15 cities tracked by JLL’s EMEA Residential Property Clock.

The JLL Q4 2016 Property Clock tracks the performance and outlook of the continent’s key residential markets and shows rents growing in the short term, across all the cities.

Rapid demographic change and a decline in home-ownership affordability levels have contributed to growing rents, which marks a stark contrast to 12 months earlier when cities such as Dubai and Paris were experiencing declining rental prices. 

However, with only minimal negative growth reported in Dubai rents during the last quarter, it appears the residential market has now reached the bottom of its current cycle.

Paris on the other hand, which had seen a 1.3% decline in rents during 2015, saw rental prices increase by 1.3% during 2016. Due to the lack of potential supply coming through, JLL is expecting rents to continue growing at these levels during the next year.

Across the EMEA region Dublin is among the top rental growth performers and rents here are expected to continue growing at a fast pace; reaching high single-digit figures during 2017. The availability of rental stock is at an all-time low and the recent changes in the Rental Predictability measures in December 2016 could push more landlords out of the market, further reducing supply. 

Meanwhile, Warsaw, which has shown a steady acceleration in rental growth across this past year displayed a further increase in prices during Q4 2016. The average rent rose in both new and old residential stock, rising by 3% compared with the previous quarter.

Philip Wedge-Bernal, Residential Research EMEA Analyst at JLL comments: "The JLL EMEA Residential Rental Clock provides a contemporary snapshot of EMEA’s most significant residential cities and illustrates their short term movements in rent.

"The clock indicates a pan-European trend of rising rental prices which is expected to continue in the short term. The reasoning behind this varies from market to market but there are common themes such as improving macroeconomic conditions and rapid demographic change that are prevalent among all of these cities.

"However perhaps the most significant factor is the critical imbalance between demand and supply. A trend towards urbanisation is creating population pressure in the region’s largest metropolitan hubs. Unfortunately not enough new housing is being built to ease that pressure and this is causing rents to rise across EMEA.

"While JLL predicts that rents will recover in 2017, the pace of recovery is expected to be impacted by political and economic uncertainty. Elections in key European countries are likely to affect market confidence, negatively impacting rental growth."​