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The European economy has been impacted by the US-led trade upheavals. In 2018, there has been a deceleration in activity and a downgrade in expectations, albeit still modest. Looking ahead, both Germany and France are expected to see a step down in growth, although rates remain healthy by the standards of the last decade. Brexit continues to colour the UK outlook, but growth is set to continue. Hopes for a deal averting the worst-case options have risen of late, but it is a fine balance and it could be several years before the new relationship with the EU is finalised. Economic growth rates are projected to remain below par until a tentative revival in 2020.
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18 January 2019